Unmistakable Errors

Bill James and the Curse of Certitude

Modern day baseball writers and analysts routinely cite Bill James as a revolutionary in their field. They credit his unique style of analyzing baseball as a turning point in how the game and its many bits of old school “conventional wisdom” were viewed. It’s not uncommon at all to see arguments for James’ induction into the Hall of Fame for his contributions to modernizing baseball statistics and analysis.

And that’s fine, and deserved. James really did shift the thinking of baseball fans and front offices, so credit where it’s due. I mean, he’s in Moneyball for crying out loud.

But…(You knew this ‘but’ was coming.)

…Bill James is wrong a lot. I mean, a LOT.

As a general rule of thumb, there’s nothing in the world wrong with that. Anyone, in pretty much any field, is going to make some educated guesses, particularly when they are challenging the way things have always been done. Sometimes those guesses are going to be wrong. It happens. It’s actually healthy.